Provided by the Social Security Advisory team (SSAS) team on AMAC Foundation’s Social Security Report.
It’s almost amusing – media pundits grasp news about monthly inflation as early as the first quarter of each year and try to extrapolate the early data to predict a Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for the following year. It certainly provides something to write about but has little basis in reality for this reason: next year’s COLA is determined using inflation data from the 3rd quarter of the current year, so inflation rates in earlier months carry no weight in the computation of next year’s COLA. Nevertheless, early predictions may seem newsworthy, but it’s important to maintain perspective about the validity of those predictions and what the COLA measurement actually is.
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