Provided by the Social Security Advisory team (SSAS) team on AMAC Foundation’s Social Security Report.
It’s almost amusing – media pundits grasp news about monthly inflation as early as the first quarter of each year and try to extrapolate the early data to predict a Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for the following year. It certainly provides something to write about but has little basis in reality for this reason: next year’s COLA is determined using inflation data from the 3rd quarter of the current year, so inflation rates in earlier months carry no weight in the computation of next year’s COLA. Nevertheless, early predictions may seem newsworthy, but it’s important to maintain perspective about the validity of those predictions and what the COLA measurement actually is.
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Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.7 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 307.026 (1982-84=100).
For the month, the index increased 0.4 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 3.4 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 301.551 (1982-84=100).
For the month, the index increased 0.6 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 3.7 percent over the last 12 months.
For the month, the index increased 0.4 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.
The Consumer Price Index for September 2023 is scheduled to be released on Thursday, October 12, 2023, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).
The combined average for July and August is 3%. One more month to go!
**The actual CPI-W which will be the cost-of-living increase (COLA) for Social Security recipients in 2024 will be released on October 12th, 2023 around 8:30 a.m. eastern time.